فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی
سال چهاردهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 52، تابستان 1390)

This Article tries to answer this question: which theory can help us to understand & explain the Nature of Arab World Changes in the nature of Arab World Changes in sol, and predict the future trends of these changes? Author argues that everyone of these six theories including failed state, uprising against humiliation, Pervasive penetration, fourth Wave of Democracy, modification of Anti – Americanism and return ti Islamic Identity, can Explain some aspects of changes in Arab world, Mean while, the theory of "Anachronistic Governance", Can give us a more comprehensive Explanation of these changes.

This article tries to review the important & Effective Components on Political prospects of Arab revolutionary Movements & Challenges of New model of State in Arabic Middle East. Findings reveal that in the transition to civil state, Components like: Nature of State, Types of Political Regime's response toward revolutionary movement, Coalition or Disintegration of Modernist Political discourses with traditional Islamic parties, neutrality or kind of intervention of military forces & the quality of transnational actors Role, has made three models of transition in these countries: relatively Peaceful transition in Tunisia & Egypt, Internal War in Libya & armed struggles in Syria & Yemen, and as a third type, begin gradual structural reforms in Jordan & Morocco, by taking into consideration these three models & also the balancing role of army in new state in Tunisia & Egypt, theoretical & strategic rethinking of Islamists, and Struggle of regional & international actors to influence the structure and theoretical & political discourses of new states, We can argue that in that in the long run, Moderate Islamic States will replace Authoritarian Regimes in Arab World.

The main purpose of this article is to review social Networks & satellite channels Role in occurrence & constitution of Arab revelations. Author argues that new history of Arab world has been shaped under the shadows of globalization & social networks. Arab youth revolutions brings about anew literature in IR & study of virtual & postmodern revolutions, which in turn shows that western political sociological approaches are not valid frameworks to study middle east. That's why, this article tries to investigate Arab revolutions by critical theories & writings of Arab authors.

By Occurrence of a/11/u. s put the Reform in middle east countries in its Agenda in the form of Greater middle east plan. This plan Was applied in us foreign policy in 2002 with a Social appearance but a deep political & security reality, Ignorance of the Planners of greater middle east policy about Societal factors in the region, had a great part in its failure Recent upheaval's in middle east Which are caused by Islamic awakening in Arabic region, are outcomes of that failure one of the Causes of success & continuity of people's presence in the scene of protests, is the indigenous & original Nature of middle eastern developments & non – involvement of international forces in this upheavals.Bahrainis one of the main fronts of Islamic Awakening & this article tries to focus on it.

This article using this method, is going to Compare Islamic Revolution of Iran (1979) & Jan. 25th Revolution in Egypt, and assumes that without such an analysis, it's not possible to understand & explain Egypt Revolution. Theoretical Background of article is theory of Political opportunity from sociological framework for analysis of social movements. By Application of these theories, author argues that Islamic Revolution of Iran, provided a suitable political opportunity for revolutionary movement in Egypt & decrees as its costs & length in the way to victory. But Mubarak Regime, Egypt military forces & U.S. by learning from Iran's revolution, try their best to limit political opportunities for Islamists to conquer the whole political sphere of Egypt & manage the transition from Social Islamism toward Political Islamism.

Prospect of Arab World Political upheavals based on recent opposition movements, is under influence of several Variables. Foreign Actors & Forces are among important Variables that influence political future of Arab World. Foreign actors intervention & view (including states, governmental international institution & non – governmental actors) toward Arab countries involved in internal protests, are determined by other variables, at first security & Economic interests and after them Democracy human rights & emancipation from great power's hegemony.